STATS PREVIEW: Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC – 21.10.2023

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A TOP TWO seed for the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs, subsequent home field advantage in the post-season, and 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup qualification have now all been clinched! Indeed, the Lions achieved these fantastic feats after defeating New England Revolution 3-2 in our final home game of the 2023 MLS regular season. With City’s victory and a 0-0 tie between Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC sealing our top two status, Oscar Pareja‘s Orlando City SC now visit BMO Field to face Eastern Conference whipping boys Toronto FC on 2023 MLS Decision Day.

Sealing our ninth home victory of the MLS season back on October 7, a result that saw us reach 60 points in the East, a first-half Mauricio Pereyra masterclass helped the Lions on their way to another morale-boosting win – our first MLS victory over bogey opponent Revs in 11 league meetings.

In all my years watching the team, the last month or so has seen Orlando City SC produce the most convincing and consistent soccer we’ve ever played in MLS. Already clinching our spot in the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs back on September 20 – earlier than ever before with five games to spare – this MLS Decision Day is refreshingly stress-free for City supporters.

Indeed, on MLS Decision Day in both 2021 and 2022, Orlando City SC agonisingly went into the final day of the regular season knowing that by full-time, they could be in or out of the post-season. Fortunately making it on both occasions, 2023 MLS Decision Day is excitingly all about extending our fine form into the post-season. Successfully securing our top two seeding prior to the international break, City can now look forward to hosting two home games in the newly revamped Round One Best-of-3 series of the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs. The icing on the cake, the Lions can also look forward to appearing in the 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup too, qualifying for the tournament for a second successive season courtesy of having secured a top two Eastern Conference finish.

All that’s left for Orlando City SC to find out on 2023 MLS Decision Day is whether they will be facing Atlanta United, Nashville SC or New England Revolution in Round One of the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.

Heading into the final gameweek of the MLS regular season, the Lions remain second in the Eastern Conference on 60 points.

Second in the overall Supporters’ Shield standings too, Orlando City SC can no longer be surpassed by nearest challengers St. Louis CITY SC (56 points) of the Western Conference.

Importantly, Orlando City SC’s number two seeding means that we have home field advantage in the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.

This means we have sealed the dream scenario of potentially hosting 2023 MLS Cup at our Exploria Stadium home, should we get that far, and barring number one seed FC Cincinnati reaching this stage of course.

Also sealing 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup qualification courtesy of our 3-2 win over Revs, we’re excitingly set to make our second successive tournament appearance.

With first-placed FC Cincinnati already qualified by virtue of winning the 2023 Supporters’ Shield, and third-placed Philadelphia Union already qualified by virtue of winning the 2023 Leagues Cup third-place play-off, this effectively left two 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup qualification spots open for sides finishing in the top four of the overall Supporters’ Shield standings.

As for our 2023 MLS Decision Day opponents TFC, The Reds have endured a nightmare campaign.

It’s been a season they simply can’t wait to erase from their memories and consign to the history books.

Winning just four of their 33 regular season fixtures – and losing 19 of them – TFC sit rock bottom of the Eastern Conference on a measly 22 points.

Should Orlando City SC win at BMO Field on 2023 MLS Decision Day, it will consign TFC to their lowest ever MLS regular season points tally – one point fewer than their current all-time low of 23 points recorded back in 2012.

With TFC eyes fixated on 2024 for a long while now, The Reds are a massive 38 points behind City.

Toronto FC interim head coach since Bob Bradley’s June 26 sacking, Terry Dunfield has overseen a continued fall from grace, staying in temporary charge of The Reds for way longer than he first anticipated.

Despite TFC announcing John Herdman as their new head coach back on August 28, Dunfield has still been leading the first team, overseeing a feeble 3-0 defeat at New York Red Bulls in his final game in charge back on October 7.

This means that the 2023 MLS Decision Day meeting of Toronto FC and Orlando City SC is officially John Herdman’s first game in charge of The Reds ahead of the Englishman putting his own stamp on the team in 2024.

Toronto FC’s dramatic demise has been all the more shocking considering The Reds were MLS Cup champions as recently as 2017.

In 2022, TFC made headlines when going all out to sign Italian Designated Players Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi too.

Despite the allure and talent of these big-name arrivals, it just hasn’t worked out.

Back in our formative MLS years, Toronto FC were a really tough bogey opponent for City – winning eight of the first 11 league head-to-heads.

Ever since then however, Orlando City SC have wrestled back the initiative in this international Eastern Conference series.

Last meeting each other back on July 4, Orlando City SC celebrated Independence Day with a bang – emphatically defeating Toronto FC 4-0 at Exploria Stadium.

Orlando City SC looked good for a second consecutive league victory as early as the 22nd minute.

Deservedly nailing down left back as his own this season, Rafael Santos curled one of his trademark crosses to César Araújo on 16 minutes.

Unmarked at the back post, Araújo’s diving header was his first and only goal of 2023 (so far) and gave City an early lead.

Staying on the front foot, things got even better just six minutes later.

Yet again, Rafael Santos was the goal source, seeing his deflected cross bamboozle former Lion Shane O’Neill at another ex-Lion Greg Ranjitsingh‘s near post.

Carefully watching the play, Duncan McGuire opportunistically checked his run before toe poking Rafael Santos‘ deflected cross past Ranjitsingh.

A poacher’s goal, it was McGuire’s seventh MLS goal of 2023, tying him level with Facundo Torres in turn.

On 62 minutes, Fernando Bernardeschi foolishly succumbed to the red mist, going eye-to-eye with, and then charging Wilder Cartagena for a second yellow – and red card.

Reduced to 10 men – just like Fire a game previous – City’s task became easier and the Lions ruthlessly punished The Reds.

On 77 minutes, there was a lovely moment for Dagur Dan Thórhallsson who scored his first ever City goal.

Well spotted by César Araújo with a raking pass from deep, Dagur Dan rounded Greg Ranjitsingh who was caught in no man’s land before passing the ball into an empty net.

Another sub – Ercan Kara – got in on the action too, neatly dispatching an ingenious Martín Ojeda back-heeled assist in TFC’s penalty area on 84 minutes.

Orlando City SC‘s most emphatic MLS victory of 2023, it was remarkably the second time in a row that we’ve defeated Toronto FC 4-0 at Exploria Stadium.

Casting our minds back to October 7 though, Orlando City SC went into the international break feeling mighty fine after finally defeating New England Revolution in MLS for the first time since September 2017.

After an even start to the first-half, Tomás Chancalay struck Pedro Gallese‘s crossbar on 25 minutes – a warning shot that seemed to spark the Lions into life.

Just six minutes later, Mauricio Pereyra grabbed the ball, got his head up, and expertly floated a ball out wide to Dagur Dan Thórhallsson who was sprinting down the right wing.

Having made right back his own, the Icelander set himself well before sending a deadly accurate cross into Duncan McGuire who flashed a powerful header past former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. in the Revs goal (1-0) – Big Dunc’s second goal against Revs this season.

The goal also tied McGuire level with Damani Ralph (11 goals) for the second-most goals by a draft pick in their first MLS season out of college.

McGuire’s eleventh MLS goal of a simply incredible rookie campaign, Orlando City SC doubled their lead just seven minutes later.

A constant danger down the left wing, Rafael Santos found Iván Angulo who stood up a cross to the centre of Revs’ penalty area.

On hand was Facundo Torres who impressively swivelled to volley Angulo’s cross first-time to make it a two-goal lead (2-0).

El Cuervo’s sixth goal in his last 10 MLS appearances for Orlando City SC – and his fourteenth MLS goal of the season – our Designated Player has simply been huge down the stretch.

They say you’re most vulnerable after you’ve just scored and on 42 minutes, New England Revolution grabbed one back.

With goalscoring nemesis Carles Gil striding through City’s midfield, the Spaniard took on an opportunistic strike from range.

A powerful shot that slightly changed direction in the air, it deceived Pedro Gallese who let Carles Gil’s strike slip through his fingertips (2-1).

A rare error from the super dependable Peruvian, it was Carles Gil’s fifth career goal against City – a man who always seems to score against the Lions.

Just when Revs were getting a foothold in the game, up stepped a free-scoring Orlando City SC side yet again!

In virtually the final play of the first-half, an incredibly incisive through ball from El Maestro – Mauricio Pereyra – found the dangerous Rafael Santos down the left wing.

Expertly cutting the ball back to Iván Angulo who jaunted into the Revs’ penalty area unmarked, the Colombian’s strike took a slight deflection off of Matt Polster and deceived Earl Edwards Jr. to make it 3-1 right before the half-time whistle.

In the second-half, key starters Duncan McGuire, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres were all withdrawn by Oscar Pareja on 66 minutes.

With Papi managing their minutes ahead of what we hope is a deep post-season run, Ramiro Enrique, Martín Ojeda, and Júnior Urso replaced the trio and all got 20+ minutes to stake their claim.

Managing our lead well for most of the second-half – just as we did at Nashville SC – Orlando City SC now look defensively resilient and more ruthless in front of goal – the sought-after recipe for success.

Scoring three or more goals in three of our last four home games at Exploria Stadium, we’re now combining hard work and grit with genuine attacking quality and ingenuity – a lethal combination and something we’ll hope to replicate deep into the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.

On 93 minutes, Carles Gil scored again via a Robin Jansson deflection to make it a one-goal game (3-2) but fortunately, time wasn’t on the Spaniard nor the Revs’ side.

With referee Allen Chapman’s full-time whistle sounding right after this play, Carles Gil’s sixth career goal against City was nothing more than a consolation strike.

A somewhat flattering full-time scoreline (3-2) considering Orlando City SC looked the way more convincing side – dominating both possession (54% to 46%) and shot attempts (22 to 15) – City were simply overjoyed to seal what is officially our highest Eastern Conference and Supporters’ Shield finish to date.

As for final footnotes prior to Toronto FC, Orlando City SC will have influential double pivot midfielders César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena both in contention for our road trip to Ontario.

Escaping fifth successive yellow cards against New England Revolution, our dynamic South American double-act were smart and disciplined to avoid a one-game suspension.

That said, it will be interesting to see whether Oscar Pareja opts for a heavily rotated starting eleven at Toronto FC, resting key players ahead of more important post-season battles to come.

Elsewhere, just when it looked as if Facundo Torres could upset the MLS Golden Boot race, a recent Denis Bouanga hat-trick against Minnesota United and a goal at Austin FC now means the Los Angeles FC forward is the outright leading scorer on 19 goals with El Cuervo currently trailing by five goals (14 goals).

I know what you’re thinking; Toronto FC have been absolutely horrible this season!

But surely even they aren’t bad enough to see Facu score five goals to at least tie Bouanga in the MLS Golden Boot race – which is a shame.

In a regular season that started out forgettable – yet transformed by Oscar Pareja into a hugely promising one that has seen Orlando City SC record their highest all-time single-season points tally (60) – go out there one last time and continue providing us the genuine hope and optimism we need to create history in the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.

Vamos Orlando!

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC

Last 3 head-to-heads

  • May 14, 2022: Toronto FC 0 Orlando City SC 1 (MLS)
  • September 17, 2022: Orlando City SC 4 Toronto FC 0 (MLS)
  • July 4, 2023: Orlando City SC 4 Toronto FC 0 (MLS)

2015/23 head-to-head stats

  • It was 4-0 to Orlando the last time the sides met (July 2023)
  • Played TFC 18 times in MLS – TFC 8, Draws 3, Orlando 7
  • Orlando have won the last 3 MLS head-to-heads by an aggregate score of 9 goals to zero
  • TFC have lost 13 of their last 14 MLS fixtures
  • Facundo Torres has scored in 6 of Orlando’s last 10 MLS fixtures

Watching the game

Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC will be shown live on Apple TV at the earlier time of 23:00 (GMT) on Saturday, October 21.

Remember, UK supporters can watch this game and all of Orlando City SC‘s fixtures in the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs by subscribing to Apple TV’s “MLS Season Pass”.

Subscribe now by clicking here.

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What is YOUR score prediction for Orlando City SC‘s 2023 MLS Decision Day game at Toronto FC?

Comment below or tweet us at @Orlando_CityUK to let us know!

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